MARCH - APRIL 2019AUTOTECHOUTLOOK.COM8AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING IN THE NEXT DECADE-RIGHT?Tracking the developments in the field of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) is a complex endeavour. At LMC Automotive, our goal­to produce responsive and focused forecasts for the automotive industry­requires a view on the most likely development path in this area. But there are a number of differences between this and our traditional industry analysis. One is that there is no historical precedent for this kind of technology change. Another is the vast array of information, much hidden by commercial sensitivities, to be tracked when forming a view. Even within the developing AV industry itself, there is a huge range of opinion on what is possible.For automotive industry participants, planning for the large-scale arrival of high autonomy (vehicles at SAE Level 4 or above) is now a standing item on operational and strategic plans. At LMC Automotive, we have developed some basic principles to determine how this will play out.One, accept that this technology change requires forecast scenarios for both timing of mass adoption of AVs and the numbers likely to be involved. Anybody offering confident forecasts on AV markets right now is either trying to fool their audience, or has already succeeded in fooling themselves over the certainty of their projections. Things will become clearer over time and this will allow for a narrowing of the scenario ranges. But it is prudent to have an open mind now, with views of the AV dreamers at one end of the spectrum, and the AV sceptics at the other.Two, focus on and monitor the development of a large array of factors that will genuinely enable the uptake of AVs in the future.Three, engage continuously with those actually creating technology and systems that will enable successful AV projects. Interestingly, in talking with technology, and particularly software, specialists, it is common to encounter a determination to succeed in AV development coupled with realistic expectations on the timeframes involved.Four, maintain a live set of forecast scenarios for AVs, responding to new developments as they continue to come thick and fast.Five, align a central forecast to our traditional automotive sector models, to account for the impact on non-high-autonomy vehicles. Once we have significant deployments of AVs, shared autonomous mobility is going to destroy a component of traditional owned-vehicle demand. In this The organisational complexity of the holistic solution is daunting, which is why AV developers require considerable resources and partnerships to move forwardBy Pete Kelly, Managing Director, LMC AutomotiveIN MYOPINION
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